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Jamie Dimon looks at geopolitical risk for clues about the severity of the US recession.

The CEO of America’s largest bank, Jamie Dimon, is watching world events for signs of just how severe a potential US recession may be.

Many on Wall Street, including Dimon’s own bank, JPMorgan Chase, are predicting that the United States will enter a recession early next year.

“It’s turbulent,” Dimon said of the current geopolitical risk. “It’s like anything could go wrong,” he told CBS News’ “Face the Nation” moderator Margaret Brennan in an exclusive interview.

He pointed to a variety of risk factors, including Russia’s war in Ukraine, fiscal turmoil in emerging markets, US competition with China, and rising oil and food prices, as factors that will shape the economic outlook. .

Dimon also said the Federal Reserve was likely behind the curve in tightening policy to combat rising prices.

“Look, I think the Fed, you know, anybody can look and say you’re late. I hate questioning people, because I make mistakes all the time,” Dimon said. “But now they’ve caught up.”

Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that there could be a slowdown in the pace of interest rate increases. But Dimon thinks there may be room for more action after that.

“They may have to do a little bit more after that, which will obviously surprise people,” Dimon said.

He told Brennan that he believes the Fed will ultimately prevail in its efforts to contain record inflation and move it closer to its preferred level of 2%.

“I think they’re going to win. I don’t think that’s going to happen for 10 years,” Dimon said. “The only question is how long does it take to get to a number that people think you’ve won.”

Still, the economic climate and the path forward for inflation are uncertain. At an event at the Brookings Institution last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that it is hard to know how long inflation will stay high: “The truth is that the path forward for inflation remains highly uncertain.” .

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