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A new poll released Thursday shows Arizona Republicans trailing their Democratic opponents in the state’s key Senate and gubernatorial races with less than 7 weeks to go before the November general election.
According to an AARP survey of likely Arizona voters, incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly leads Republican candidate Blake Masters 50%-42% in the Senate race, while Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs has a slight lead over Republican candidate Kari Lake 49%-48% in the governor’s race.
A bright spot for Republicans in the poll shows them leading a generic congressional ticket by just one point over Democrats, 48%-47%, while a small percentage of voters in each race remain undecided.
In the Senate race, Kelly leads the Masters in nearly every voter category, including 50+ (48%-44%), Independents (47%-39%), Women (56%-36% ), college-educated (56%-37%), and Hispanic (63%-38%).
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Masters leads Kelly among men (50%-43%) and those without a college degree (46%-45%), but the two tied for white voter preference at 46% each.
Libertarian Senate candidate Marc Victor garnered 4% support among likely voters.
In the gubernatorial race, Lake and Hobbs split each bracket, indicating how tight the race has become.
Lake leads with voters age 50 and older (50%-48%), male (53%-43%), voters without a college degree (53%-44%), and white voters (52%-45%), while Hobbs leads with independents (49%-45%), women (55%-42%), college-educated voters (57%-40%) and Hispanic voters (62%-32%).
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The poll found that President Biden’s approval rating is below the level of likely voters in the state, showing only 45% approve of the job he has done as president, compared to 55% who disapprove.
Voters view former President Donald Trump more positively, with 50% approval and 50% disapproval.
Only 37% of voters have a favorable opinion of the state’s other Democratic senator, Kyrsten Sinema, who is not running for re-election until 2024. 54% have an unfavorable opinion of her.
When it came to which issues were most important to voters as they headed to the polls, immigration and border security ranked first with 16% of voters saying it was the most important. It was closely followed by inflation and the increase in prices by 14%.
Only 12% of voters considered abortion the most important issue, something Democrats across the country have invested heavily in campaigning for after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June.
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When asked specifically about the issues of inflation and price gouging and the nullification of Roe v. Wade on the part of the Supreme Court, 58% of voters over the age of 50 said that inflation was the more important of the two, compared to only 40% who said Roe v. Wade. .
Independents (55%-40%) and Republicans (90%-9%) agreed that inflation was more important than Roe v. Wade.
Only a majority of Democrats over the age of 50 (81%-17%) said that Roe v. Wade was a bigger issue than inflation.
Voters generally had a poor opinion of the direction the country is headed, with only 27% saying it is going in the right direction and 72% saying it is going in the wrong direction. The numbers were similar to how they felt about the Arizona address (27%-73%).
Additionally, 88% of voters said they were motivated to vote in this year’s midterm elections, and 62% said they were “very” or “somewhat” concerned about their personal financial situation.
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The Fox News Power Rankings rate the Arizona Senate and gubernatorial races as “tossups.”
The general elections will take place on Tuesday, November 8.